In a teleconference Tuesday, ESPN's Todd McShay joined the host of analysts predicting the Lions will draft Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford No. 1 overall.

“I'll be surprised if Detroit goes in any other direction besides Stafford,” McShay said. “I think they've honed in on him.”

Of the Lions' negotiations with the agents for Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry and Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith, McShay said, “I just think that they're convinced they have to get a deal done first (with Stafford) and I believe that they will before the draft.”

Beyond that, McShay said he expects the Lions to take an offensive tackle somewhere in their next two picks. The Lions have a second first-rounder at No. 20, acquired in last year's Roy Williams trade, and the first pick of the second round (No. 33). Depending how the draft falls, they might look to trade down a few spots from 20 and acquire extra mid-round picks because they don't have fourth- or fifth-rounders.

“If it's Stafford at 1 then they obviously still need an offensive tackle and I think if Michael Oher from Ole Miss were available at that spot at No. 20 then they would take him and be happy,” McShay said. “I'm not so sure that he's going to be there. Then they'd have to make a decision if they reach for a guy like Arizona's Eben Britton.

"They have other needs though. Rey Maualuga from USC, the inside linebacker, would fit a need and if they take him there maybe they address the offensive tackle spot with Phil Loadholt at 33. Or if they get Michael Oher at 20, then I think they can go after a guy like James Laurinaitis the inside linebacker from Ohio State at 33. So I would say quarterback, offensive tackle and linebacker, three of the top needs.”

I caught up with former Ohio State middle linebacker James Laurinaitis last week as part of my draft preview package. He hasn't had much contact with the Lions throughout this whole process – just an interview at the combine and coach Jim Schwartz attended his pro day – but that doesn't mean they're not interested.

“I was talking to my agent about it, Tom Condon” – who also happens to represent Matt Stafford – “and he said, 'James, a lot of these teams already know your story. It's not like you're a secret to a lot of these teams. So they already know kind of what they're getting off the field with you,'” Laurinaitis said.

In fact, teams are limited to bringing 30 prospects in for visits, and many of those trips are used on players who need updated physicals and don't have quite the body of work of Laurinaitis, a three-year starter at Ohio State who hasn't missed a game or practice since fourth grade.

Laurinaitis said he worked out privately for St. Louis, Atlanta, Denver and Miami, and took visits to Kansas City, Houston and New Orleans.

“You're kind of wondering, are these teams interested in me or are these teams just trying to play the chess match to make their competitor think they're interested in me?” Laurinaitis said. “It's all a big poker game kind of. You don't want to put too many chips on one team because you never know who's going to take you.”

I don't know where Laurinaitis stands on the Lions' draft board. He's widely considered the No. 2 middle linebacker in the draft behind USC's Rey Maualuga, less dynamic but maybe a more complete player. The Lions, of course, also view Wake Forest's Aaron Curry as a middle backer, and Curry is the best defensive player in the draft.

I do know Laurinaitis is an interesting guy who would start from Day 1 with the Lions. His father was the professional wrestler “the Animal,” his uncle is still in the wrestling business, and he won the Nagurski Award as a sophomore and followed up with two productive years while playing under scouts' microscopes. He also said all the right things about playing in Detroit.

“It'd be like the next ghost of (Chris) Spielman coming in there, another Buckeye linebacker,” Laurinaitis said. “It'd be fun, it'd be an experience. To me, no matter what team picks me it's going to be a dream come true when that phone rings. You get to play in the NFL, you got to look at it that way. You can't say this or that, and if I went to Detroit, it's still a dream come true and hopefully be a part of some young players and some guys to turn it around up there because it's a great football town and they love their football and they want to see the Lions succeed.”

Update: Forgot to add, I got a tweet from Western Illinois linebacker Jason Williams saying he hasn't had any contact with the Lions. He's an outside backer so it's no great surprise. Figured I'd share nonetheless.

I'm sometimes a little slow in updating, but if you want to follow me on Twitter, it's "davebirkett".

I've taken an informal poll of all the player agents I've spoken with over the last few days, including one with a potential top-five pick, and all predict that the Lions will take Matt Stafford No. 1 overall. No one's saying it's a done deal, but there are plenty of whispers around the league. That's why I'm sticking with Stafford at the top of my second mock draft. There's still two weeks to change, and I'll do my final mock two Fridays from now, but I'd be moderately surprised if the Lions end up drafting anyone other than Stafford.

As for the rest of my mock? There's a few changes from the one I put out two weeks ago, including who the Lions take at Nos. 20 and 33.

1. Lions: QB Matt Stafford, Georgia – Will be on the Carson Palmer plan as a rookie.
2. Rams: OT Jason Smith, Baylor – Smith or Eugene Monroe is the pick here.
3. Chiefs: OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia – Scott Pioli's been quiet, but Matt Cassel needs protection.
4. Seahawks: LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest –  Curry replaces Julian Peterson.
5. Browns: DE Brian Orakpo, Texas – Browns need pass-rushing help.
6. Bengals: OT Andre Smith, Alabama – Smith didn't fall too much after all.
7. Raiders: WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech –  Crabtree's no Calvin Johnson.
8. Jacksonville: WR, Jeremy Maclin, Missouri –  Matt Jones didn't work out, maybe Maclin will.
9. Packers: DT B.J. Raji, Boston College – Big nosetackle will haunt Lions for years to come.
10. 49ers: QB Mark Sanchez, USC – Big pro day gets Sanchez into top 10.
11. Bills: OT Michael Oher, Ole Miss – Look for a Jason Peters trade; Lions should at least inquire.
12. Broncos: OLB Everette Brown, Florida State – Brown or Maybin, pick your preference.
13. Redskins: DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee – Need an end after Jason Taylor's release.
14. Saints: LB Brian Cushing, USC – Secondary is more of a need, but Cushing's a player.
15. Texans: CB Malcolm Jenkins, OSU – Can play corner or safety.
16. Chargers:  OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State – Best player left on the board.
17. Jets: QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State – I'm not convinced Freeman won't slide to bottom of round.
18. Broncos: LB Rey Maualuga, USC – Denver might actually be able to stop someone next year.
19. Buccaneers: DT Peria Jerry, Ole Miss – New-look Bucs need help up front.
20. Lions: LB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State – With Maualuga gone, Lions can't risk getting a LB later.
21. Eagles: RB Beanie Wells, Ohio State – Eagles have their pick of RBs here.
22. Vikings: OT Eben Britton, Arizona – Vikings need a fix at right tackle.
23. Patriots: LB Clay Matthews, USC – Third USC backer in Round 1.
24. Falcons: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State – Ryan's favorite receiver the next 10 years.
25. Dolphins: CB Darius Butler, UConn – Dolphins will take best player available.
26. Ravens: WR Percy Harvin, Florida – Time to get Flacco some weapons.
27. Colts: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU – Great value if Jackson slides this far.
28. Eagles: DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech – Jim Johnson will turn him loose.
29. Giants: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland – With Plaxico gone, Giants need a WR.
30. Titans: DT Jarron Gilbert, San Jose State – Albert Haynesworth's replacement.
31. Cardinals: RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia – Edge is done in Arizona.
32. Steelers: C Alex Mack, Cal – Steelers need to keep Roethlisberger upright.
33. Lions: DT Evander Hood, Missouri – Should start from Day 1.

In: CB Darius Butler, UConn, OT Eben Britton, DE Michael Johnson
Out: OLB Connor Barwin, CB Vontae Davis, RB Donald Brown

Lions coach Jim Schwartz was among the NFL personnel at Ohio State's pro day Friday. Schwartz told several news outlets he was impressed with running back Beanie Wells, who clocked 40-yard dashes in the 4.39- to 4.42-second range. The Lions, however, aren't interested in a first-round running back. Instead, they were there to keep tabs on linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and defensive backs Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington.

According to reports, Freeman had an excellent workout Friday, running 40 times between 4.5 and 4.55 seconds. He ran a 4.74 at the combine (seventh among linebackers) and benched 225 pounds 30 times (best at his position).

Laurinaitis, a distinct possibility at No. 20, ran 40s in the 4.7s and told The Columbus Dispatch he was pleased with his performance in the agility drills.

"I think there's a misnomer that playing in the Big Ten, you don't have to play in space," he said. "But half the Big Ten is spread teams now, so it's just exciting to be in space, have (coaches) challenge you to see what you can do."

Jenkins, the top cornerback prospect in the draft, has not posted blazing 40 times and some project him at safety in the NFL. Still, it's unlikely he slips to the Lions at 20.

Update: The Lions may also be in the market for another defensive tackle if the Cory Redding-to-the-Seahawks rumors are true. According to ProFootballTalk.com, the Lions are on the verge of trading their defensive tackle to Seattle for an unspecificed return, perhaps including Julian Peterson, who the website reports is expected to be released.

Redding has a cap number of $5.383 million this year ($3.3 million in actual salary) and the Lions have plenty of room to take the hit. Hopefully, any trade would net the Lions an additional draft pick somewhere. There are no notable free-agent defensive tackles on the market and the Lions have plenty of other holes to fill.

Redding, incidentally, is due a $250,000 workout bonus this offseason so if the Lions are in trade discussions there might be incentive to get a deal done before the team's offseason program starts Monday.

The NFL combine wraps up today with defensive-back workouts. Lions fans should keep an eye on cornerbacks D.J. Moore of Vanderbilt and Alphonso Smith of Wake Forest, a couple potential No. 20 draft picks, and Utah's Sean Smith, one of the more intriguing secondary prospects in my mind at 6-foot-3 and 214 pounds. I'm back in Michigan getting ready for free agency, but a few final thoughts on the league's annual job fair:

• Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry had a phenomenal workout by all accounts, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed to be the No. 1 pick. The question with him isn't about character or athletic ability or production, it's about whether he presents enough value as a strong-side linebacker (or whether he can move to the middle) to go No. 1. And that wasn't going to be answered in Indy. It's going to take more film study of not just him but offensive tackles Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe and quarterback Matt Stafford. If one of those grades out just as high at a more valuable position, they'll be the pick. If not, Curry would be a fine choice.

• Cincinnati defensive end/outside linebacker Connor Barwin had a big Monday, too, running a 4.66-second 40-yard dash and besting all linemen in the vertical (40.5 inches) and broad (10-8) jumps. I wrote about Barwin, a Hazel Park native and U-D High grad, in Sunday's paper. He's a fascinating story, really. He played two years of basketball for the Bearcats and switched from tight end to defensive end last year, when he tied for the Big East lead in sacks (11) and blocked three kicks. Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly said Barwin remade himself in part by studying a DVD of every sack in the NFL in 2007 (Bengals coach Marvin Lewis sent him the disk). Now, he projects as a second-round pick for a 3-4 team and casts easy comparisons to Patriots linebacker Mike Vrable.

“When you're putting your roster together this is a guy that gives you so much flexibility and everybody wants that so what happens, there becomes a run on that and sometimes he gets picked a little higher,” Kelly said. “They're saying he's a second-round draft pick. How high he goes in the second round depends on how patient some guys can be.”

• Keep an eye on Ole Miss defensive tackle Peria Jerry in the coming weeks. Jerry didn't work out in Indy – his pro day is March 26 – but if the Lions are serious about building from the inside out they need to find an impact defense tackle. There aren't many available in free agency and tackles typically rise on draft day. Boston College's B.J. Raji will be long gone by pick No. 20, but Jerry could be on the board.

• Speaking of free agency, the Raiders lavished record-setting contracts on cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and punter Shane Lechler last week because that's the only way they could keep both players long term. An NFL person told me two teams are going to have to overpay to sign anyone of significance this offseason, the Raiders and Lions. Half of his prediction has already come true.

I asked Lions coach Jim Schwartz last week how hard it will be to attract free agents to an 0-16 team. His response: “People will look at a lot of different things. I don't know that anybody makes their decision strictly on the record the year before. That's the best thing about the NFL system as opposed to maybe some of the other sports is the NFL does offer a chance to turn around fairly quick, and players know that. I referenced Tennessee, a couple years ago we weren't a very attractive place to be, now they are. So I think players know that.”

We'll see.

• The Lions need a middle linebacker. There aren't many with the potential to step in and start immediately in the draft. USC's Rey Maualuga and Ohio State's James Laurinaitis are potential first-rounders, and Pitt's Scott McKillop might be next on the list. McKillop said he had a 15-minute meeting with Lions scouts Friday night in Indy. “One of the things I know they're going to count on initially is a linebacker to contribute early to special teams,” McKillop said. “At University of Pittsburgh, I didn't play my first two years so I was just trying to be a special-teams demon for Pitt and that was how I made my mark on the team and how I felt I contributed.”

I'm on my way to the airport for a flight back to Detroit and I know the NFL draft is still two months away with lots of evaluations to be made, but after spending five days at the combine here's what I think the Lions will do in the first round:

Pass on Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford and draft either Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith or Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry No. 1 overall. Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe is the only other player I see in the No. 1-overall mix right now, but Smith's brute strength (he bench-pressed 225 pounds 33 times on Saturday, 10 more than Monroe) seems a better fit with how the Lions want to build their team. Curry is a great player and a good story, but he doesn't provide the same type of positional value at strong-side linebacker.

With the 20th pick (obtained in the Roy Williams trade), I'd look at Ohio State middle linebacker James Laurinaitis or USC's Rey Maualuga if they're still on the board (Laurinaitis probably stands a better chance of being there at this point). Either one would be the leader of the defense for years to come and fill a huge hole. A quarterback like USC's Mark Sanchez (if he drops) or Kansas State's Josh Freeman makes sense, too, considering the state of the roster, and free agency will dictate the Lions' needs at cornerback and defensive tackle, two more viable options though my next-in-line choices.