I'm busy doing holiday stuff this weekend, so I'm combining my three keys and weekly picks into one blog. One school of thought is this is the Lions' best chance to win because they're at home, against a team that's out of the playoffs, teaming with motivation themselves. I don't buy it, because I don't think the Lions have enough healthy bodies to stop Drew Brees.

I do, however, think they can cover the seven-point spread if they get production out of Kevin Smith and their running game, convert at least two fourth-down plays – Lions coach Rod Marinelli said he'll be aggressive in late-down situations like he has been the past month – and keep Saints running back Pierre Thomas under 80 yards of total offense.

I'm taking the Saints to win, 24-21, but the Lions to cover.

Now for the rest of my picks. As always, against the spread and with the home team in all caps:

Home covers you can't deny
DALLAS minus-5 over Baltimore (Saturday)
CLEVELAND minus-3 over Cincinnati
MINNESOTA minus-3 over Atlanta
NY GIANTS minus-3 over Carolina
TAMPA BAY minus 3 1/2 over San Diego

Home dogs that bite
TENNESSEE plus-2 over Pittsburgh
KANSAS CITY plus-3 1/2 over Miami
SEATTLE plus-3 1/2 over NY Jets

Road Warriors laying with love
Philadelphia minus-5 over WASHINGTON
San Francisco minus-5 over ST. LOUIS

Don't need 'em but I'll take 'em
Green Bay plus-4 over CHICAGO (Monday)

Points only, please
Arizona plus-8 over NEW ENGLAND
OAKLAND plus-7 over Houston
Buffalo plus-7 over DENVER

Record: 4-10-1 last week, 108-103-5 overall