I don't see a scenario, other than an early injury to Peyton Manning, in which the Lions beat the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium today. The Colts are just starting to heat up with six straight wins, while the Lions are on the road with a banged up quarterback and an 0-13 record.

The only reason I don't think this will be as bad as last year's loss to San Diego is Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy's friendship with Lions coach Rod Marinelli. Indy will call the dogs off early, but still cover the 17-point spread with ease, 38-10.

Three weeks left and I'm 11 games over .500. Not great, but I'll take it. Here's this week's picks, as always against the spread and with home teams in caps.

Home covers you can't deny
ARIZONA minus-3 over Minnesota
MIAMI minus-6 over San Francisco
NY JETS minus-7 1/2 over Buffalo
BALTIMORE minus-3 over Pittsburgh
DALLAS minus-3 over NY Giants

Home dogs that bite
JACKSONVILLE plus-2 over Green Bay

Road warriors laying with love
San Diego minus-5 1/2 over KANSAS CITY
Tennessee minus-3 over HOUSTON
Seattle minus-2 1/2 over ST. LOUIS
Washington minus-7 over CINCINNATI
New England minus-7 at OAKLAND

Don't need 'em but I'll take 'em
Tampa Bay plus-3 over ATLANTA

Points only, please
Denver plus-8 at CAROLINA
Cleveland plus-14 at PHILADELPHIA (Monday night)

Record: 12-3 last week, 104-93-4 overall