The common perception is that the Lions' best chance to win this season is today against Minnesota. I don't totally disagree, though those odds have gone down considerably now that Pat and Kevin Williams are playing.

The monster defensive tackles will make it tough for Kevin Smith to run the ball, they'll heap pressure on Daunte Culpepper, and with the Lions unable to control the clock Adrian Peterson could run wild. That's why I've got Minnesota winning today, 31-17, and covering the 10-point spread.

I'm back above .500 after a strong showing last week. Here's the rest of my picks, against the spread and with the home team in all caps.

Home covers you can't deny
INDIANAPOLIS minus-13 1/2 over Cincinnati
CHICAGO minus-6 1/2 over Jacksonville
GREEN BAY minus-6 over Houston
TENNESSEE minus-14 over Cleveland
BALTIMORE minus-5 over Washington
NEW ORLEANS minus-3 over Atlanta
DENVER minus-9 over Kansas City
ARIZONA minus-14 over St. Louis
PITTSBURGH minus-3 over Dallas
CAROLINA minus-3 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)

Home dogs that bite
SAN FRANCISCO plus-4 over NY Jets

Don't need 'em but I'll take 'em
Miami plus-1 over BUFFALO

Points only, please
Philadelphia plus-6 1/2 at GIANTS
SEATTLE plus-6 1/2 over New England

Record: 11-5 last week, 92-90-4 overall