Before I get into why I picked Memphis over Michigan State today, I have two suggestions for the folks at Reliant Stadium next time they host a NCAA tournament regional. First, give the rodeo at least a week to leave town before welcoming in city folks for a basketball tournament. The smell walking up to the arena the last two days has been a mix of puke and horse manure. Not mood setting. Second, if circumstances occur where a traffic is out less than a mile from the arena, rather than post a cop car on the side of the road while cars come to a four-way stop, have an officer in the middle of the street directing traffic. In only makes sense to avoid a severe backup on the way into the arena.

Now that that's out of the way, I see Memphis winning a close game tonight for a couple reasons. First, the Tigers are underrated defensively and I expect their length and athleticism to give MSU problems on the perimeter. Drew Neitzel has struggled to score against longer defenders (see: Temple), and I can see Travis Walton committing about five turnovers (again, see: Pitt). MSU needs to win the transition game, not just beating Memphis down court but limiting the Tigers' fast-break opportunities, and Raymar Morgan can't afford early foul trouble trying to defend Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Despite Memphis coach John Calipari's insistance otherwise, free-throw shooting could be a huge factor. In the end though, Memphis has the two best players on the floor in Douglas-Roberts and freshman Derrick Rose and that's enough to lead the Tigers to victory, 74-69.