Maybe it's stubbornness why I'm picking Pitt to beat Michigan State tonight for a spot in the Sweet 16. I came into the NCAA tournament thinking MSU would survive its first game against Temple and lose to Pitt when the aftereffects of the Big Ten tourney finally sunk in. To the Spartans' credit, they showed no hangover Thursday from Indy and played one of their best games of the year. Contributions came from everyone, Drew Neitzel (five points) included, and the defensive effort was impressive.

Looking at the raw numbers, today's game favors MSU. The Spartans are deeper (Pitt plays just seven men), bigger (if Marquise Gray is healthy, they have four posts to throw at 6-foot-7, 265-pound DeJuan Blair), play better defense and would more benefit from the up-tempo style both teams desire. I fully expect Neitzel to rebound from his shooting funk with a big game, and talking to fellow reporters Pitt has had trouble containing quick guards like Kalin Lucas.

Still, I'm taking Pitt in a squeaker after seeing them up close Thursday in the first-round against Oral Roberts, Blair is a vacuum for rebounds, Gilbert Brown is my X-factor off the bench, and Sam Young will be the best player on the floor. Young's got the matchup to watch early. He's too quick for Goran Suton, who'll likely start the game on him, and could get MSU's only offensive post threat in foul trouble.

Honestly, nothing that happens tonight will surprise me. MSU has the dogs to win by 10 and could just as easily lose by double digits if it gets into one of a turnover funk. In the end though, I see one of the best games of the second round. Young somehow gets 20, Ronald Ramon hits a couple big 3-pointers, and the Panthers, a 66-percent free-throw team, make just enough from the line for a 70-63 win.