The Lions have roughly the same chance of beating the Colts Sunday as you have of winning lotto. So, in the words of Lloyd Christmas, I'm saying there's a chance. OK, not really, but that won't stop me from presenting my three keys to victory. Here goes:

Keep Peyton Manning off the field. The Lions have led after the first quarter in four of their last five games in part because they were able to win the possession battle with time-consuming drives. There's little they'll be able to do defensively to stop Manning, but a heavy dose of Kevin Smith early can go a long way towards making this a game.

Rally for Redding. Defensive tackle Cory Redding went on injured reserve Friday with knee problems and will have surgery soon. He wasn't having a great season – just three sacks, and none in the last five games – but players in the locker room respect him immensely and could draw motivation from his absence. Shaun Cody will start at undertackle, Dewayne White will play left end in his return from a calf injury (with Cliff Avril on the pass-rushing right side), and Andre Fluellen and Ikaika Alama-Francis will split time between end and tackle.

Thumb's up. Dan Orlovsky will make his first start Sunday since suffering ligament damage and two fractures in his throwing thumb Nov. 2 against Chicago. Orlovsky did not commit a turnover as a starter while healthy – he threw two interceptions against the Bears – and can't fall into bad habits today. More importantly, if his thumb flares up at all (and he didn't appear 100 percent healthy during practice this week) the Lions can't hesitate to turn to Drew Stanton.