After picking the Lions to win last week and cover two weeks before against San Francisco, I've learned my lesson. This is a bad football team, not a bad first month, and it's not changing anytime soon.

Dan Orlovsky will start over Jon Kitna at quarterback today and Rudi Johnson finally gets his first start as a Lion. I wouldn't expect either to have much success against Minnesota's defensive front, and of course neither solves the Lions' biggest dilemma - stopping Adrian Peterson.

With that said, I've got Minnesota covering the 13 1/2 points today. I know the Vikings have had trouble scoring at times, but that won't be an issue today.

Here's the rest of my Week 6 picks. As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are in caps:

Home covers you can't deny
NY JETS minus-9 1/2 over Cincinnati
TAMPA BAY minus-1 1/2 over Carolina
HOUSTON minus-3 over Miami
WASHINGTON minus-12 1/2 over St. Louis
SEATTLE minus-1 over Green Bay
SAN DIEGO minus-5 over New England
NEW ORLEANS minus-7 over Oakland
INDIANAPOLIS minus-4 over Baltimore

Home dogs that bite
CLEVELAND plus-7 1/2 over NY Giants (Monday)

Road warriors laying with love
Philadelphia minus-4 1/2 over SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas minus-4 1/2 over ARIZONA
Chicago minus-3 over ATLANTA

Don't need 'em, but I'll take 'em
Jacksonville plus-3 over DENVER

Record: Last week 5-9, 34-37-2 overall