It's chalk, I know, but I'm picking the Steelers to beat the Giants in the Super Bowl. I think Pittsburgh's the best team in the NFL as long as Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and I'm not sold that anyone else gets out of the NFC. The Panthers have a shot, I guess, and Adrian Peterson is the best player in the league, but in the end home-field advantage wins out and whichever team is lucky enough to hire Steve Spagnuolo will have to wait until February to bring him aboard.

The AFC's a different matter. Both the Colts and Titans are Super Bowl contenders, and the Chargers and Ravens are no slouches either (though I'm predicting both lose this weekend). Still, that Pittsburgh defense is too tough and MVP Peyton Manning won't be able to overcome that and the weather, too.

My Super Bowl XLIII champion? The Steelers. The Giants don't have a balanced enough offense without Plaxico Burress. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has a recipe the Lions should copy in their latest rebuilding process. Dominate on defense, pound away with the running game, and they've already got one of the two best receivers in the league. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, by the way, has a similar background to Leslie Frazier, a candidate to run the Lions next year. Like Tomlin, Frazier coached defensive backs under Tony Dungy before becoming defensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings. Just saying ...

I finished the regular season a hair above .500 with my picks. Not good enough to make money on (thankfully these are for entertainment purposes only), but not bad embarrassing enough to make me stop, either. So here's this week's choices. As always, against the spread and with home team in all caps.

Saturday's games
Indianapolis minus-1 over SAN DIEGO
ARIZONA minus-1 over Atlanta

Sunday's games
MIAMI plus-3 1 2 over Baltimore
Philadelphia minus-3 over MINNESOTA

Record: 7-8-1 last week, 121-120-6 overall