I know it goes against logic after the way they played last week, but I've got the Lions beating the Packers in their home opener Sunday. Here's my thinking: The Lions aren't as bad as they played last week — can't be — and I believe in their splits last year. They're a good home team with enough firepower on offense to take advantage of a banged up Charles Woodson, assuming Jon Kitna gets enough protection up front. Defensively, I'd be worried about Ryan Grant after what Michael Turner did last week. Grant averaged 7.5 yards per carry against the Lions last year. But he's still battling a hamstring injury and is playing on short rest this week after Green Bay's Monday night win over Minnesota. That's enough to give the Lions their first win of the year, 24-20.

Detroit's my only home dog who'll bite this week. The rest of my NFL picks on a rainy Saturday afternoon (all picks are against the spread and home teams are in caps):

Home covers you can't deny
JACKSONVILLE minus-4 1/2 over Buffalo: Jags rebound after Week 1 loss
NY JETS minus-1 1/2 over New England: Life after Brady ain't pretty
SEATTLE minus-7 over San Francisco: J.T. O'Sullivan 0-2 heading into Lions game
CINCINNATI minus-1 over Tennessee: No Vince Young might be good for Titans
KANSAS CITY minus-3 1/2 over Oakland: Two of the NFL's worst teams
CAROLINA minus-3 vs. Chicago: Are Bears for real? Wait and see for me
WASHINGTON pick vs. New Orleans: Clinton Portis headed for a big day
DALLAS minus-7 over Philadelphia (Monday night): T.O. still feuding in Philly
HOUSTON minus-4 1/2 over Baltimore (Monday night): Game might not be played

Road warriors laying with love
Pittsburgh minus-6 over CLEVELAND: My Cleveland peeps tell me the Browns stink
Indianapolis minus-1 1/2 over MINNESOTA: One good team starts 0-2
NY Giants minus-8 1/2 over ST. LOUIS: Rams will have trouble scoring all year

Don't need 'em, but I'll take 'em
San Diego plus-1 over DENVER: Chargers still team to beat in AFC West
Miami plus-6 1/2 over ARIZONA: Parcells can whip a franchise into shape

Points only, please
Atlanta plus-7 over TAMPA BAY: Falcons beat Tampa-north last week

Record: 7-8 last week, 7-8 overall