It's fair to question how good a team Michigan State is after its latest Big Ten road loss, an 85-76 upset at the hands of Penn State. While the Nittany Lions didn't look like it Saturday, they are truly one of the worst teams in the league since losing leading scorer Geary Claxton to a knee injury.

That gives MSU two losses in four conference road games — the other was to a defensive-minded but talent-deprived Iowa team, another it had no business losing to — with the meat of its schedule coming up. In the final month of the season, the Spartans play at Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State. The first three teams are in a virtual first-place tie with one conference loss.

There's no way MSU gets a one seed now with two losses worse than any team in the top 10. Their early-season schedule doesn't appear as tough as once thought (Bradley is, frankly, mediocre; BYU is not an at-large team; and Texas has some very impressive wins but hasn't looked good recently and could stumble further with a brutal seven-game stretch upcoming). And stars Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan remain prone to fits of wildly inconsistent play.

At this rate, MSU looks like a three or four seed, which lessens the likelihood they'll play their second-round games at Ford Field and diminishes the chances of a deep tourney run. To get a three, in fact, I believe the Spartans need to win out at home (Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana) and steal three on the road (against Illinois, Ohio State and one of the leaders). That would leave them 14-4 in a weak Big Ten, and they'd still probably need a strong showing in the conference tournament.

This is still a good team, a talented team. But for a variety of reasons — too many turnovers, an offense that struggles in halfcourt sets, defensive lapses on the perimeter — right now it seems ill-equipped for March.