Ten games left in the regular season for both Michigan and Michigan State. Both teams have pretty gaudy records — 17-4 overall for MSU, 16-5 for Michigan, and both are 4-2 in the Big Ten — but neither is a lock for the NCAA tournament. Yet.

Who is? Well, Wisconsin and Ohio State for sure, and Indiana has a bid that just needs the stitching. I've said since the beginning I think the Big Ten is a solid five-bid league, which means three teams (Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois) are vying for the final two spots. I could see a sixth team squeaking in depending on the finish, and I guess it's too early to totally rule out Purdue (which can't win on the road) or Iowa (who's season may come down to next week's game in Ann Arbor).

But if I had to put my house on it today, I'd guess MSU and Illinois get the final two bids out of the Big Ten and Michigan heads to its home away from home, the NIT. The Wolverines just don't have enough quality wins (Illinois at Crisler is the best), and I see five sure losses on the rest of the schedule (at Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois, MSU and home against the Buckeyes) with one or two more mixed in (home games with MSU and Indiana and even a trip to Minnesota may be tricky).

MSU is playing pretty good ball now that Raymar Morgan is back in the lineup. The Spartans have a solid win against Texas and will get credit for beating two other potential tournament teams in BYU and Bradley. The rest of the way? I don't see the Spartans catching fire, but they play too hard not to pull off at least one surprise (next weekend's home game with Ohio State is my guess). Considering its rep, its early-season injury woes and its computer number, MSU needs just four wins the rest of the way to go dancing. They'd like more and just to be safe they'll get more, but that's all they need for a 10th straight bid.

I documented how I think Illinois (15-7, 3-4) will rebound in my Big Ten column last week (pick up our paper every Wednesday for that), and now that I've seen more of Wisconsin and Ohio State, Wisconsin is clearly the better team. The Buckeyes have more talent, but they rely too much on the 3-pointer. They'll beat MSU Saturday and may beat the Badgers in Columbus, but Wisconsin will win the league.